HOW IMMIGRATION HAS AFFECTED THE UNITED STATES/MEXICO RELATIONSHIP: MSNBC TALKS TO THE AMBASSADOR OF MEXICO, ARTURO SARUKHAN CASAMITJANA

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CLICK HERE TO SEE THE MSNBC INTERVIEW WITH ARTURO SARUKHAN CASAMITJANA AMBASSADOR OF MEXICO

Arturo Sarukhan, Mexican Ambassador to the U.S., makes remarks with President Barack Obama during a Cinco de Mayo celebration in the Grand Foyer of the White House in Washington, Monday, May 4, 2009. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan talks about the affiliation between the U.S. and Mexico as Cinco De Mayo approaches.

SOURCE: AP/Danny Johnston

>>> at home and among our neighbors in mexico . president obama addressed the holiday and the bonds between our two countries on thursday.
>> the united states and mexico have lived intersecting and overlapping histories. our two countries share the ties of history and familia and commerce and culture and values and today, we are more united than ever. in friendship and in common purpose.
>> ambassador arturo sarukhan serves as mexico ambassador to the united states . thank you very much. happy cinco de mayo a day in advance. one of the things you said in your speech yesterday about cinco de mayo was that immigration reform is the unfinished business between our two countries. and you talked about the fact that there are 11 million people living in the shadows. i talked earlier to hilda solis, the labor secretary about this but the argument you get from democrats, from the white house is that oh, it’s the republicans on the hill. the argument you get from the republicans is that the white house won’t negotiate. what is your perspective looking at us?

photo source by FlickrU.S. Secretary of LaborHilda Solis testifies at a hearing about Strengthening the Economy and Improving the Lives of American Workers on February 3, 2010.

>> well, look, this is probably the most important single issue in the u.s.- mexico bilateral relationship. nothing will have a more profound impact on the future prosperity, well-being and security of north america of mexico and the united states than getting immigration right. but it is a very toxic and very polar rising issue more so in an election. and more so when so many americans are hurting and out of a job. these issues are very tough to handle and there are people on both sides of the aisle that i think are fully committed to getting this done. the challenge is timing. and the equation, how you put this together so combined all the different groups that have a specific interest in getting immigration done, but that need to come together and agree to big single holistic deal.

photo source: AP

>> immigration, illegal immigration is down. is that because of border security or is that because more jobs are available and the economy has improved so much in mexico ?
>> this is probably the most important story that is happening today on the u.s.- mexico border which americans are not focusing on. there’s a dramatic drop from undocumented immigration from 2006 to 2011 , we’ve seen a 60% drop in documented immigration. there has just been a report issued by the pew hispanic institute that states what a lot of us had already been seeing that net migration from mexico is zero if not negative. that means that more people are going back than people actually coming across the border. it’s a mix of reasons. certainly a softer u.s. economy especially in the construction sector which has traditionally been a magnet for undocumented labor has to do with it. greater operational control of the border. something a lot of people don’t want to focus on but which is a reality. the pernicious and very troubling musclealing in of organized crime into human trafficking on the border and the impact that has on the well-being and security of migrants. i think the most important reason is that over 15 years, as a result of sustained sound macro economic policies in mexico , one of the largest free trade agreement networks that any country has on the face of the earth by generating export-related job creation and by what is probably by world bank bench marks the most successful extreme poverty aleviation program on the face of the earth. these things combined with a profound shift in the demographics of mexico is expanding the middle classes , is creating better jobs. and is locking in or anchoring people who may be a year ago, two years ago would have decided to cross the border. they’re staying home.

About twice as many Mexicans returned home in the five years previous to the 2010 census than had done so in the five years before the 2000 census. Read Story: Pew Research Center

>> we’re anticipating of course, in june premium court decision on immigration. and the indications from the oral arguments and it’s always difficult to guess, are that the court may uphold some of the more extreme measures . how will that be viewed south of the border ?

>> look, this is an issue that as you can well imagine has garnered a lot of attention in mexico . i think that mexico in the past and we continue to say it, i think that we fully agree to the fact that any country has the right to establish whatever immigration policy it deems fit, but we do believe also that that’s a responsibility of the federal government . and we think that some of these laws, arizona, and a lot of people have forgotten alabama, may be one of the worst pieces of legislation out there and are poisoning the well spring of values of bonds that connect these two countries. it is a very big challenge.

El embajador de México en EU, Arturo Sarukhan, dijo que Centroamérica es “víctima” del éxito de la lucha antinarco (EFE Archivo).

>> let me ask you finally about the violence because as a member of the committee to protect journalists i have to tell you, there’s terrible concern for reporters and photographers in veracruz state murdered only this week. what can we do about what’s happening? it seems to be the targeting by these criminals of reporters and photographers.
>> first of all, we have to do anything in our power to defend journalists who are doing their job and a lot of them do become the target of organized crime that is either seeking to silence them or to ensure that the stories don’t come out. we have to find ways to protect these journalists more importantly we have to build mechanisms in which we can investigate and prosecute a swiftly and as quickly as possible because a society where a free press is muzzled because of intimidation or fear senior a society that’s in trouble.
>> arturo, sarakhan, thank you very much for joining us today.

Read More: MSNBC

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OBAMA SAYS “NO” IS NOT AN OPTION FOR THE DREAM ACT: THE DREAM OF OPPORTUNITY IS STILL ALIVE IN OUR TIME

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(AFP OUT) U.S. President Barack Obama greets guests during a Cinco de Mayo reception in the Rose Garden at the White House on May 3, 2012 in Washington, D.C. Cinco de Mayo celebrates the Battle of Puebla between Mexico and France in 1862.
(May 2, 2012 – Source: Pool/Getty Images North America)

THE DREAM OF OPPORTUNITY IS STILL ALIVE IN OUR TIME – LOOKING BACK AT MAY 4, 2009

“While geography has made us neighbors, tradition has made us friends, economics has made us partners and necessity has made us allies, two great and independent nations united by hope instead of fear. Visiting Mexico, I was greeted by children on both our nations waving flags. A powerful reminder that everything we do is to secure a better future for our children and for our grandchildren. And while I was there, I found it impossible not to be touched by the warmth and vigor and the forceful vitality of the Mexican people. The love of life I’ve seen in Mexican American communities throughout this nation, and that’s what we’ll celebrate tomorrow, that’s what we’ll celebrate tonight, and that’s what we’ll celebrate in the future. Feliz Cinco de Mayo.” -President Obama

President Obama told a largely Hispanic audience today that he is ready to sign the DREAM Act and blamed Republicans for the failure of the legislation that would grant illegal immigrant students a path to citizenship.

photo source: AP

“We’re going to keep fighting for this common-sense reform — not just because hundreds of thousands of talented young students depend on it, but because ultimately America depends on it,” the president said at the annual Cinco de Mayo reception at the White House. “‘No’ is not an option. I want to sign the DREAM Act into law. I’ve got the pens all ready. I’m willing to work with anybody who is serious to get this done, and to achieve bipartisan, comprehensive immigration reform that solves this challenge once and for all.”

Dancers from Ballet Folklorico Mexicano de Georgetown perform at a Cinco de Mayo reception at the White House in Washington, May 3, 2012. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
Read more: IB Times

Today’s election-year celebration comes as the president courts Latino voters in the run-up to November.

(AFP OUT) Guests take pictures during a Cinco de Mayo reception in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, on May 3, 2012.. Photo by Olivier Douliery/ABACAUSA.com
(May 2, 2012 – Source: Pool/Getty Images North America)

“We know that securing our future depends on making sure that all Americans have the opportunity to reach their potential. And that’s why we’ve worked hard over the last three and a half years to create jobs; to make sure you get the care you need when you get sick; to make college affordable for everybody; to ensure that no matter where you are, where you come from, what you look like, what your last name is — even if it’s Obama– you can make it if you try,” the president said to applause.

(AFP OUT) The Ballet Folklorico Mexicano performs during a Cinco de Mayo reception in the Rose Garden at the White House on May 3, 2012 in Washington, D.C. Cinco de Mayo celebrates the Battle of Puebla between Mexico and France in 1862.
(May 2, 2012 – Source: Pool/Getty Images North America)

In his brief remarks, Obama welcomed everyone to celebrate the “tres de Mayo” at this year’s party. The president will spend the real Cinco de Mayo this Saturday campaigning in Ohio and Virginia. “We just like to get the fiesta started early around here,” he joked. This year’s “fiesta” included dance performances by Georgetown University’s Ballet Folklórico and traditional Mexican music. Guests mingled in the Rose Garden, sipping champagne and, of course, margaritas.

Read More: ABC News

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DID THE CEO OF AMERICAN APPAREL MARCH IN SUPPORT OF IMMIGRANTS’ RIGHTS: ACCORDING TO CHARNEY IMMIGRATION REFORM IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT FROM A HUMANITARIAN AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

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A May Day activist dressed as U.S. President Barack Obama marches through downtown Los Angeles marking the International Worker’s Day on May 1, 2012 in Los Angeles, California. Occupy Wall Street groups across the country have joined with unions during the May Day protests, a traditional day of global protests in sympathy with unions and leftist politics.

On May 1, 2012, several rallies and protests took part in Los Angeles to recognize the contributions workers are making to the country and to protest for better working conditions, fair pay, and immigration reform.
American Apparel (AMEX: APP), which has long advocated for comprehensive immigration reform and criticized the apartheid-like treatment of undocumented workers, will close its factory for several hours May 1 so its workers can join the march and related pro-worker activities.

Hayley Fox/Blogdowntown
Dov Charney, founder and CEO of American Apparel marched in support of immigrants’ rights at the downtown L.A. May Day parade on Tuesday.

CEO Dov Charney joined the workers to show his support for the fair treatment of all workers, domestically and internationally, and his unwavering support for prompt, fair, and effective immigration reform in the United States.

According to Charney, “Immigration reform is critically important not just from a humanitarian perspective, but also from an economic perspective. Economic growth and stability are adversely affected by the ability of employers to exploit undocumented workers, engage in sweatshop tactics, and drive wages down. Immigration reform will help raise wages and working conditions in Los Angeles and throughout the country.”

Read more here: Sun Herald

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WHAT WILL VOTER TURNOUT BE LIKE IN 2012: HERE ARE THREE SCENARIOS

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Will strong turnout by minority voters lock up the November election for President Barack Obama? Or will the enthusiasm of the 2010 midterms carry over to boost white voter turnout, helping the Republican nominee? William H. Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, examines that question in a new paper.

photo source: Dallas Observer blog

The minority vote in 2008 played a decisive role for Mr. Obama both nationally and in several key states. He lost the white vote but outperformed among all other races. In North Carolina, where Mr. Obama won by a mere 14,000 votes, African Americans accounted for nearly a quarter of the electorate, and 95% of them voted for Mr. Obama, according to exit polls. Minority voters also helped push Mr. Obama over the top in Indiana, Virginia and New Mexico, while expanding his margins in big states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania.

photo source: ThirdCoast Digest

Indeed in 2008, the paper notes, turnout by African Americans, Hispanics and Asian Americans was a few percentage points higher in each group than in 2004 (65% in 2008 vs. 60% in 2004; 50% vs. 47%; and 47% vs. 44% respectively for each group), while white turnout was one point less (66% vs. 67%).

Jae C. Hong AP Photo
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks at the RNC State Chairman’s National Meeting in Scottsdale, Ariz., Friday, April 20, 2012.

Also, the margin of votes for the Democrats among minority groups, already sizable in 2004, expanded greatly in 2008. That is, more minorities were voting, and those votes were much more heavily Democratic. For white voters, which lean toward Republicans, the margin narrowed, but was still in the Republican column. In short, white turnout slumped, and whites who did vote voted less Republican than four years earlier.

photo source: AP

With this as background, Mr. Frey poses the question:
As we approach November, minorities will account for a slightly larger share of eligible voters than in 2008. At the same time, white support for the Republican candidate may be greater than in 2008. Which dynamic will prevail?

photo source Reuters

He has three scenarios:

Scenario A assumes that the 2008 turnout and voting patterns again apply to 2012 voters. If that occurs, Obama wins with 29 states and 358 electoral votes. (270 electoral votes are needed to win.)

Scenario B applies 2004 turnout and voting patterns to the 2012 population. In this scenario, Mr. Romney beats Mr. Obama, with 286 electoral votes in 30 states.

Scenario C assumes strong partisan participation for both whites and minorities in 2012. This scenario is perhaps the most likely of the  three, says Mr. Frey. In this scenario, whites in each state are assumed to have more enthusiasm for the GOP nominee (likely Mitt Romney) in 2012 than in 2008 (John McCain) and as a result will mimic their 2004 patterns. Meanwhile, minorities are presumed to follow their strong 2008 turnout and voting margins. In this scenario, Mr. Obama wins, narrowly, with 292 electoral votes spread among 24 states.

Read more: The Wall Street Journal

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WILL THE SB 1070 SUPREME COURT CASE CHANGE THE ELECTION?

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PHOENIX – APRIL 25: Opponents of Arizona‘s new immigration enforcement law protest outside the state capitol building on April 25, 2010 in Phoenix, Arizona. More than 1,000 gathered to protest the passage of Arizona’s tough new law which was signed by the state’s Republican governor Jan Brewer two days before. Critics of the law say that it will encourage racial profiling by law enforcement and endanger civil rights in the state. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images) Original Filename: GYI0060270245.jpg

With the Supreme Court likely to uphold portions of Arizona’s infamous immigration law, the state will remain front and center in national headlines up until this year’s general election. While Hispanic voters in the state have no control over the Supreme Court’s decision, they will be able to have their voices heard at the Arizona ballot box in November.

SOURCE: AP/Matt York
Immigration-rights demonstrators march to the Arizona state Capitol in April 2006. These immigration protests sent hundreds of thousands of people into the streets this spring and promised to leave behind a surge of new Hispanic voters.

The Obama campaign certainly believes that the agitation of Hispanic and independent voters in Arizona puts the state in play for the general election.  Historical evidence and recent polling indicate that the states may well be up for grabs this year. Putting Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in play would not only shake up the electoral map but also send a clear message that extremist immigration laws are political poison. In 2008 – with minimal investment from the Obama Campaign – the President commanded a large share of the Hispanic vote in Arizona, besting hometown Senator John McCain 56% to 41%. If the President can boost Hispanic turnout, the statewide electorate could become much more Democratic. With recent polling showing Arizona as a toss-up, a solid investment in Hispanic mobilization could make the state very competitive.

A Hispanic youth holds up a sign questioning Latinos’ support for President Barack Obama during a protest outside local Democratic Party headquarters in Charlotte, North Carolina. (EFE)

A recent NBC News/Marist Poll reveals that President Obama is only trailing in Arizona by 5 points. The real eye-popping numbers for the President, however, are the preferences of independent voters. Among independents in Arizona, the President outperforms Romney 45 percent to 36 percent, with 19 percent undecided. Another poll by the Merrill/Morrison Institute puts the race within the margin of error. 42 percent of Arizona registered voters preferred Mitt Romney, while 40 percent supported the President. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, so if the election were held today the contest for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes would be a toss-up.
The real question on everyone’s mind is; can an investment in maximizing the Hispanic vote in Arizona generate enough support to push Obama and down ticket Democrats over the top? Trends in Hispanic turnout from neighboring states with similar demographics suggest that these investments could pay off. Significant efforts to boost turnout in 2008 resulted in substantial increases in Hispanic voter participation.  Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada saw Hispanic voter participation increase by 33 percent, 62 percent and 32 percent respectively from 2004 to 2008. The overwhelming majority of that increased Hispanic vote went to Obama. The growing voter turnout from Hispanics helped the President carry all three of those states on his way to the White House, and this same dynamic could bring Arizona into the fold later this year.

Hispanics nationally are breaking nearly three to one for the President, if this holds true in Arizona increasing the vote of this population could swing the general election vote for more moderate voices in Arizona as well.  For the first time ever there is viable Hispanic Senatorial candidate in former Surgeon General Richard Carmona.

If this former U.S Surgeon General is any example, you can be anything you want to be if you set your mind to it–high school dropouts included. In 1967 Carmona quit Dewitt Clinton High School at age 16 and enlisted in the U.S. Army, where he eventually earned his GED. Carmona graduated at the top of his medical program at University of California, San Francisco in 1979. President George W. Bush appointed Carmona Surgeon General of the United States in 2002.

Carmona, a military veteran, has a huge lead with Hispanic voters. Politico notes that Hispanic voters favor him 61% – 25% percent statewide. Hispanic women are even more supportive, giving him a 70% – 14% advantage over Flake. At this point in the race he is an unknown quantity. Just 22 percent of voters can identify Richard Carmona, including just 19 percent of white voters, giving him room to expand support. The reality is the more Carmona is able to galvanize Hispanic support in Arizona the better off the Obama campaign will do in the state.

Tens of Thousands March in Phoenix, AZ Against SB 1070. (Photo: José Muñoz) 2010

If any segment of the Arizona population should want to change the dynamic of the state’s political apparatus it would be Hispanics. The current political environment in Arizona is toxic for Hispanics, and has been hijacked by political extremists. For those in the state vested in sending a strong message to the country that Arizona is turning a corner on this brand of governance, voting against the likes of Jan Brewer, Joe Arpaio, and Russell Pearce would speak loud and clear. With the Supreme Court likely to uphold parts of SB1070, November will be the earliest that Arizona voters can let the country know where they truly stand on this law.
Read more: Fox News Latino

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