WHAT IS THE LATEST WITH IMMIGRATION AND THE ELECTION?

THE HISPANIC BLOG IS THE LATEST HISPANIC NEWS BY JESSICA MARIE GUTIERREZ

This has been a historic week on immigration policy in an election year.

If upheld, the Supreme Court ruling on the Arizona “show me your papers” provision would have a huge mobilizing effect on Latino voters.  At the Supreme Court’s Arizona v. United States hearing on Wednesday, the narrow legal focus of the proceedings and Justices’ related discussion led many commentators to speculate that the “show me your papers” provision of Arizona’s anti-immigrant law would likely stand.  A ruling to uphold the law would not only unleash widespread discrimination in Arizona and other states with copycat legislation, it would mobilize Latino voters and other voters for whom the immigration debate is important and viewed through a personal lens.  Regardless of the outcome, the ruling will have major political ramifications in 2012 presidential race.
Coming in the heat of a race in which Democrats hope for huge Latino turnout and Republicans hope for just the opposite, the decision will draw a sharp contrast between a President who fought the Arizona law and a Republican nominee who supports it.

“Will Mitt Etch-a-Sketch on immigration?”

Probably not, but if he does, it won’t work. In diagnosing Mitt Romney’s problem with Latino voters, many commentators have concluded that Romney will tack toward the middle on immigration. We beg to differ. He may come up with some legal immigration package designed to soften his image a bit, but it’s our view that he has pandered too much and too recently to the nativist minority in the GOP to flip flop now. The last thing the Romney campaign wants is a fight with the right over immigration combined with a week of stories about his “Etch-a-Sketch” on immigration. And if we are wrong and he does shift positions, would it work? We think not. He’s already branded with Latino voters.  As Ron Brownstein notes of recent polling, “Obama’s share of the vote among Latinos notably exceeds his approval rating with them.
That’s a telling measure of how much Romney has alienated those voters, because it’s unusual for a president to poll much above his approval rating with any group.”  And Latino voters are not stupid.  They are not going to fall for a little general election shuffle.  Just ask Meg Whitman.  Some salt and pepper for the stew: Andrew Sullivan predicts Romney will stay hard right here; Michael Tomasky thinks Romney will bust a move to the center but argues it wouldn’t work here.

Marco Rubio’s DREAMs: looking past 2012 to 2016? 

                                                                           Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

The chatter surrounding Senator Marco Rubio’s impending legislation modeled on the DREAM Act has reached a fever pitch. Much of the commentary focuses on what Rubio and the DREAM legislation might mean for Romney in 2012 and Rubio’s chances in the Veepstakes.  Again, we beg to differ.  We doubt Rubio will be the VP choice and we believe he has a longer-term vision in mind. Our take is that Rubio knows Romney is cooked with Latino voters and is already focused on Republican Party’s post-2012 effort to repair its image among Latino voters.  Eventual passage of a Rubio-championed DREAM Act would indeed help Rubio’s chances to be the leader of a more Latino-friendly GOP going into 2016.

Pundits and insiders agree – immigration helping Democrats and hurting Republicans:

photo source Getty Images

What a difference a few years makes.  During 2005 and 2006, many Republicans thought they would reap the political rewards of using a hard line immigration stance as a wedge issue.  Though post-election analyses in 20062008, and 2010 showed that a hardline immigration position did not help politically, and in many cases hurt candidates politically, it seems as though the conventional wisdom has finally caught up with the election results.  A National Journal’s political Insiders generally agreed across the aisle that the issue of immigration stands to help Democrats and hurt Republicans in the November elections.  Almost half of the Democratic Insiders said the immigration issue would “help a little” while a little more than a third said it would “help a lot.” Among the Republican insiders, more than half believed immigration would “hurt a little,” a handful predicted it would “hurt a lot,” while three in ten said the issue would have “no effect.”

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RUBIO HAS A DREAM

THE HISPANIC BLOG IS THE LATEST HISPANIC NEWS BY JESSICA MARIE GUTIERREZ

Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

Hoping to defuse an issue hurting Republicans among Hispanic voters, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is working on a compromise alternative to the DREAM Act, a proposal backed strongly by Democrats and Hispanics to offer a normal life to children of illegal immigrant families.

But Rubio is taking a risk that his compromise will please neither side. It could anger tea party-style Republicans while failing to satisfy many of his own Hispanic constituents. So far, he hasn’t persuaded even leaders of his own party, including presumptive presidential nominee Mitt Romney and House Speaker John Boehner, to get in line.

According to teaparty.org if the Tea Party wins so does America…

“It’s a significant risk,” said retired University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson, a Republican. “The primary thing any political candidate wants to do is solidify his base, and this could fracture that base.” 
Rubio has been accused of using the issue as an election-year ploy, but his spokesman Alex Conant said, “There’s just as much political peril as there is potential benefit in doing anything like this.”
Originally proposed by members of both parties 10 years ago, the original DREAM Act would allow a path to citizenship for young people brought here as children when their families illegally immigrated, if they attend college or serve in the military. The name is an acronym for Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors. Such young people, not having known any other home, often are prevented from going to college because of their undocumented status, even after serving in the military. The DREAM Act would allow student loans and work-study jobs but not federal higher education grants for the students.

Daniela Pelaez/ Photo by Bill Clark/Roll Call

One recent case involved the valedictorian of North Miami High School, Daniela Pelaez, an aspiring surgeon. Admitted to the University of Florida and Dartmouth College, she instead faced deportation because her family came here illegally from Colombia when she was 4 years old. Pelaez got a respite from deportation last month after her case made headlines and sparked demonstrations by fellow students.

Daniela Pelaez 18, Alberto Carvalho, superintendent for Miami-Dade Public Schools, and Dayana Pelaez 26, at press conference, where over twenty-five hundred students protest the possible deportation of student Daniela Pelaez 18, this Friday morning, March 2, 2012, at the North Miami Senior High School. Walter Michot / Miami Herald

Rubio recently told The Huffington Post he wants “a bipartisan solution … that does not reward or encourage illegal immigration by granting amnesty, but helps accommodate talented young people like Daniela, who find themselves undocumented through no fault of their own.” Throughout his career, Rubio has had to thread the needle on immigration issues, trying on the one hand to please his conservative base, but also satisfy his Hispanic constituency. That has led him to compromise or to take ambivalent positions on issues, including official English and tough state anti-illegal immigrant laws. The son of a Cuban immigrant family, Rubio has said the original DREAM Act is flawed because allowing a path to citizenship could lead to “chain migration,” in which family members sponsor each other.

His proposal, which he hopes will be considered this summer, will include a temporary student visa rather than citizenship or legal resident status for students. But it likely would allow the students eventually to apply for legal residency without returning to their parents’ home countries. Those honorably discharged from the military, Conant said, also would be able to seek legal residency or citizenship.

Getty Images

Democrats who back the original DREAM Act, a 10-year-old proposal that passed in the House last year but failed in the Senate, decry Rubio’s idea as creating a permanent underclass of “bracero” non-citizen workers.

Rodolfo De La Garza CU Political Scientist/ Columbia Talk Radio

“It makes a very limited offer to a small segment of the population,” said Rodolfo de la Garza, a Columbia University political scientist who specializes in Hispanic voters. “I think what most Latinos are going to pick up on is what I have to characterize as either a political ploy or profound disingenuousness to the point of deceit on Rubio’s part.” He called the DREAM Act “the one issue on which there is a clear Latino position — they are 75-80 percent in favor of it in numerous polls.”
Conant called the bracero allegation “nonsense.” “Nothing is in this proposal that would prohibit these kids from someday seeking permanent residence or citizenship.”

Immigrants chant slogans during a rally Monday, May 1, 2006, in Miami. Hundreds of thousands of mostly Hispanic immigrants skipped work and took to the streets Monday, flexing their newfound political muscle in a nationwide boycott that succeeded in slowing or shutting many farms, factories, markets and restaurants. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

In a national poll of Hispanic voters in January by Univision, ABC and Latino Decisions, respondents cited “immigration reform/DREAM Act” as tied with the economy and jobs as the top issue in their voting decisions for the November election. In Florida, where large numbers of Hispanics are either Cuban refugees, who automatically receive resident status, or Puerto Ricans who are citizens, immigration and the DREAM Act were still in second place, with 17 percent, to 23 percent for the economy. Despite that, Romney said during the primary campaign that he would veto the DREAM Act, although he favored the idea for illegal immigrants who serve in the military.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney shakes hands with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) after Romney was introduced by Rubio during a town-hall-style meeting in Aston, Pa.
Jae C. Hong / AP

Earlier this week, Romney declined to endorse Rubio’s compromise, even though he was standing next to Rubio in a joint news conference in Pennsylvania at the time. “It has many features to commend it,” Romney said, “but it’s something that we’re studying.” He said he expects to lay out immigration proposals before the November election, but added, “Obviously our first priority is to secure the border.”
Also this week, Boehner said it is unlikely Rubio’s proposal could pass the House this year, citing “a very hostile political environment.” “To deal with a very difficult issue like this, I think it would be difficult at best,” he said. Conant called Romney’s reluctance “totally understandable, that he would want to see the plan’s details before endorsing the plan. But the idea isn’t likely to be popular with the tea party Republicans to whom Romney and Boehner must appeal. 

Boehner To Rubio: DREAM On, Dude! photo by Jeff Malet

“It’s an amnesty bill — it rewards lawbreaking,” said Bob Dane, spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, an anti-illegal immigration advocacy group. “Rubio is marching off into McCain-land” — a reference to Ariz. Sen. JohnMcCain’s support for an immigration reform bill that would have allowed a path to citizenship. “Whatever support he’s going to pick up from Hispanics is probably going to be far outweighed by what he loses from his conservative base.” he said. Rubio’s idea may get a better reception, but still not unanimous approval, from tea partiers in his home state, who consider him a hero.

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) of Utah waits to speak during a Tea Party Express town hall meeting at the National Press Club in Washington Tuesday.
Cliff Owen/AP

“Some people draw the hard line, absolutely no amnesty, but some tea party groups understand you’re trying to address a difficult issue,” said tea party leader Karin Hoffman, who said she formed her opinion from online forums and message boards. “They acknowledge you’re providing a way for them (young illegal immigrants) to be a contributing member of society, and it’s not blanket amnesty — it’s for the individual alone.”

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PRESIDENT OBAMA JOINS THE MEETING OF NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAN LEADERS AT THE SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS

THE HISPANIC BLOG IS THE LATEST HISPANIC NEWS BY JESSICA MARIE GUTIERREZ

President Barack Obama leaves today for a trip to a summit in Latin America that may have as much resonance in domestic politics as in hemispheric economics. Discussions at the meeting of North and South American leaders in the resort city of Cartagena, Colombia, will cover trade, economic growth and the battle against drug trafficking. Yet the White House is mindful that about 16 percent of U.S. residents trace their roots to the region, and that group may play an outsized role in the November presidential election.

photo source AP

“The president desperately needs high voter turnout among Hispanic Americans,” said Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University in Houston. “It doesn’t hurt for him to be in Colombia, and being seen with Latino leaders of the hemisphere is not a bad photo-op in an election year.”

Obama’s campaign is gearing up for a close election fight against Republican Mitt Romney, putting a premium on gaining an edge with any voting group. Obama is actively courting Hispanics — who gave him 67 percent of their votes in 2008 — with a Spanish-language website and by recruiting Spanish-speaking volunteers and using Spanish-language voter registration forms and phone banks.

President Barack Obama addresses the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute’s 34th Annual Awards Gala in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2011. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

“Key swing states that have large Hispanic populations will be extremely attentive” to the trip, said Susan MacManus, professor of political science at the University of South Florida in Tampa. “Many feel that Latin and South America has been ignored.”

Swing State

One of those states is Florida, with 29 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency and where Hispanics make up 22.5 percent of the population. Before Obama meets with the other 32 leaders at the Summit of the Americas he’s scheduled to stop at the Port of Tampa.The theme for that visit, as at the summit, will be expanding U.S. exports and gaining greater access to Latin markets for small businesses. About 40 percent of all exports from Tampa go to Latin America, and the port means 100,000 jobs and generates almost $8 billion in annual economic impact, according to its website.

President Obama waves as he arrives to speak at the Port of Tampa in Tampa, Fla., Friday April 13, 2012. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara) CHRIS O’MEARA — AP

Total U.S. exports in the Americas amount to $700 billion a year out of $1.5 trillion worldwide, according to Commerce Department figures. Among the summit participants, Canada is the biggest U.S. trading partner, Mexico is the third largest and Brazil ranks ninth.

Hemispheric Trade

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during a visit to the Port of Tampa on April 13, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. The President, on his way to the Summit of the Americas in Colombia, used the visit to emphasis small business trade with countries in Latin America.
(April 12, 2012 – Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images North America)

“The U.S. economy benefits substantially from our trade in the Americas, and over 40 percent of our exports currently go to the Americas,” Ben Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, told reporters in an April 11 briefing. “Those exports are growing faster than our trade with the rest of the world.”

US President Barack Obama with Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff Photo: Reuters

Latin America managed to largely escape the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Brazil (BZGDYOY%) is the world’s sixth largest economy, and the ranks of the middle class have swelled. The World Bank classifies most countries in the region as middle- income or higher. As countries in the region have grown more prosperous, they are less reliant on the U.S., the world’s biggest economy. That growth also comes as the Obama administration has made a deliberate pivot to focus more on Asia.

Diminished Role

Obama is “quite comfortable with the diminished role of the United States in the hemisphere” and that it’s “the natural order of things,” said Andrew Selee, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center. “The U.S. is going to continue to be engaged but no longer has the domineering authority it once did.”

President Obama arrives in Cartagena, Colombia, on April 13 for the Summit of the Americas

The summit host, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, has an agenda focusing on boosting advances in technology, finalizing the free-trade deal between the U.S. and Colombia, lessening income inequality and improving responses to natural disasters, such as earthquakes.

Obama remains popular in Central and South America, though promises to rebuild cooperation at the last summit, in 2009 in Trinidad, may have fallen short, according to the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based policy group that focuses on the Western Hemisphere.

“The U.S. must regain its credibility in the region by dealing seriously with an unfinished agenda of problems — including immigration, drugs and Cuba — that stands in the way of a real partnership,” according to a policy report issued yesterday.

Illicit Drugs

Bigger issues that aren’t on the official agenda are legalization or decriminalization of illicit drugs and whether Cuba should be allowed at the next summit. Selee said that while he doesn’t expect “dramatic outcomes” from the summit, one area where “sparks” might fly would be the debate raging in Latin America over drugs. The presidents of Colombia and Mexico have called for a discussion about easing penalties for drug use. Obama’s aides say the U.S. will resist such proposals.

Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon (R) speaks to journalists as Colombia’s President Alvaro Uribe listens during a news conference at the presidential residence Los Pinos, in Mexico City November 10, 2008. REUTERS/Henry Romero (MEXICO)

“The president doesn’t support decriminalization,” Dan Restrepo, Obama’s senior director for Western Hemisphere Affairs, told reporters.

There is friction between the U.S. and some summit leaders over restrictive U.S. policies toward Cuba. Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa is boycotting the summit because of Cuba’s absence. The region’s sole dictatorship is the only nation excluded from the gathering of heads of state from the Western Hemisphere.

Brazilian President

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff told Obama during a White House meeting April 9 that this should be the last such regional meeting without Cuba in attendance. In an e-mail interview with a group of Latin American newspapers, Obama said his administration has done more than any in decades to improve U.S. relations with Cuba and blamed the communist regime for the nation’s exclusion from the summit.

SOURCE: AP/ Pablo Martinez Monsivais
President Barack Obama meets with Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff at the United Nations in September 2011.

“We’re looking for a new era in the relationship between our two countries,” Obama said, according to a transcript of the interview published in Spanish by Bogota’s El Tiempo newspaper. “History shows that the longing for liberty and human dignity can’t be ignored forever. No authoritarian regime lasts forever. The day will arrive when the Cuban people will be free to determine their own destiny.”

While Obama moved to ease travel restrictions earlier in his presidency, the U.S. wants Cuba to release political prisoners, increase political freedoms and adopt democratic principles.

File: Barack Obama attends Cuban Independence Day celebrations in Miami in May during his run for president.
Read more: FOX NEWS

“Cuba authorities continue to deny the Cuban people their universal rights and the president will continue to stand up for those rights,” Restrepo said.

The policy is in keeping with those of past U.S. presidents from both parties, said MacManus, the Florida professor. As with other issues at the summit, Obama’s position on Cuba has political implications.

“If Obama can keep some of the Cubans who voted for him last time, appease them with that kind of stance, then that could be the difference” in winning Florida, MacManus said.

Read More: Bloomberg 

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WILL SENATOR MARCO RUBIO BE THE NEXT VICE PRESIDENT: HE SAYS HE CAN’T DELIVER, “YOU’VE GOT TO EARN THE HISPANIC VOTE”

THE HISPANIC BLOG IS THE LATEST HISPANIC NEWS BY JESSICA MARIE GUTIERREZ

Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, widely speculated to be a top pick for the Republican presidential running mate, once again firmly denied he would join the GOP ticket.

“I’m not going to be the vice president,” Rubio said Friday in an interview with CNN en Español‘s Ismael Cala. “I’m not.”

photo source AP

“I’ll tell you, the Hispanic vote has to be earned,” he said. “You can’t just put somebody on there and say, ‘This is gonna deliver it.’ You’ve got to earn it, and primarily I think you earn it through economic policies.”

Last month, Rubio rolled out a big endorsement for Mitt Romney, adding fuel to the fire in talks over whether Rubio, whose parents emigrated from Cuba, would possibly be tapped for the Republican veep spot. Rubio, however, has repeatedly shot down the notion. With Latino-Americans becoming a more influential voting bloc, politicians are increasingly growing more aggressive in their efforts to court their votes. But the junior senator argued Friday that choosing him as a running mate would not do the trick.

In Florida, Republican Marco Rubio won the senate seat convincingly, with a strong turnout from Latino voters. Photograph: Gary Rothstein/EPA

“I think a better approach is the one I’ve talked about, and that is providing these kids some sort of non-immigrant visa status so they can continue to study and then work in the U.S.,” Rubio said. “Then at some point in the future they would be able to get in line, same line as everybody else in the world.”

Elected in 2010, Rubio was dubbed early on a rising star in GOP. He’s known for bucking popular policies within the Latino community, such as the DREAM Act, a proposal that would grant a path to citizenship for minors in the country illegally, providing they served in the armed forces or attended college. Instead, he sides with positions more inline with the Republican platform on immigration.

Asked if he was setting aside a vice presidential spot in hopes of aiming for higher office in the future, Rubio said:

Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, of Florida, works in his Washington office. (EFE)

“Well I haven’t thought about that in that way. I don’t know what the future holds. I want to do a good job as a U.S. senator. “I think if I do that, I’ll have opportunities to do different things in future.”

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DID OBAMA DECLARE HE WILL PUSH IMMIGRATION THE FIRST YEAR OF HIS NEXT TERM?

THE HISPANIC BLOG IS THE LATEST HISPANIC NEWS BY JESSICA MARIE GUTIERREZ

Univision interviewed Obama in connection with this weekend’s Summit of the Americas

Topics included democracy promotion, drug trafficking, and race relations.

A protester in Los Angeles, May 1, 2011. photo source Eric Thayer/Getty Images

President Obama says he will push for major immigration legislation if he is re-elected. Obama told Univision he would like to do immigration this year, but Republican opposition is too intense.

“I can promise that I will try to do it in the first year of my second term,” Obama said. “I want to try this year,” he added. “The challenge we’ve got on immigration reform is very simple. I’ve got a majority of Democrats who are prepared to vote for it, and I’ve got no Republicans who are prepared to vote for it.”

 By SAUL LOEB, AFP/Getty Images

Obama supports what he calls a “comprehensive” immigration bill. It involves both tougher border security as well as a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants who are already in the U.S. Republicans say the emphasis should be on border protection, and liken citizenship plans to amnesty for lawbreakers. In the Univision interview, Obama took a swipe at one of those Republicans, likely election opponent Mitt Romney.

Said Obama: “We now have a Republican nominee who said that the Arizona laws are a model for the country … these are laws that potentially would allow someone to be stopped and picked up and asked where their citizenship papers are based on an assumption.”

President Barack Obama gestures during an interview with Mario “Don Francisco” Kreutzberger for Univision’s Sabado Gigante in the Rose Garden of the White House, Sept. 21, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Republican Party spokesperson Kirsten Kukowski said Obama “promised to tackle immigration reform in his first year and failed.””From immigration to creating jobs and cutting the deficit, President Obama has failed to follow through on his promises to the American people showing his words are more about winning elections than anything else,” she said.

Read More: USA TODAY

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